Our latest QUIC results show that student weeks spent on English language courses in the UK fell below 2023 levels in every quarter of 2024. However, despite this decrease, BONARD predicts that the UK will have outperformed the other 'big four' countries: Australia, Canada, and the USA. 

> Learn more about our quarterly statistics scheme QUIC

2024 recovery quarter by quarter vs pre-pandemic levels

Compared to pre-pandemic student week volumes, the October to December period (Q4) recorded the weakest recovery across all four quarters of 2024. It reached only 72% of Q4 2019 volume. In Q1 and Q2, it was 81% and 75% in the summer.

However, the picture is slightly different when comparing the 2024 results to 2023.

2024 quarterly recovery compared to the new 'year zero' 

Based on the results of our QUIC 2024 cohort:

• Q4: 96% of 2023 levels
• Q3: 91% of 2023 levels
• Q2: 99% of 2023 levels
• Q1: 87% of 2023 levels
• Overall, the 2024 cumulative volume was down 9% on 2023 levels

BONARD compiles these findings from data supplied by 125 member centres. The indicative cumulative year recovery figure is the most accurate available until May, when our annual student statistics report, based on figures from the entire membership, is published.

Speaking at a webinar exclusively for the QUIC participants Ivana Bartosik of BONARD explained that 2023 is likely to be considered the new 'year zero' for the UK ELT sector. This is the new benchmark year when data is no longer skewed by the pandemic, and there is some consistency in trends.

Student flow buffeted by external factors

Greater price sensitivity in some source markets, exchange rates, in-market offerings and technology are impacting the 'new normal' patterns. However, what isn't quantifiable is how much of any decline in volume is attributable to the shift of student flows to newer, often more price-conscious ELT destinations such as Dubai, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Robust data is not currently collected in these host countries. 

The UK's Q4 2024 winners and losers

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, South Korea, and Colombia were the top five sending markets. The top ten markets represented 71% of all student weeks.

For the second quarter in a row, Turkey showed the most significant absolute increase in student weeks (up 2,311 vs 2023). Switzerland experienced the largest decline, down 1,252 student weeks, followed by Brazil. Brazil had, however, performed particularly strongly in the previous year. 

Regional pockets of growth also continued in Q4, with Latin American countries averaging a 131% recovery from 2019 levels. However, the impact of the UK government's removal of visa-free entry for Colombian students in late November 2024 will not be evident until 2025.

Return to more predictable quarterly patterns

Our quarterly data scheme illustrates the seasonality patterns in volume, age segments, and source market rankings.

Q4 is typically the quietest in the UK, a pattern confirmed in 2024, where the lowest number of student weeks was recorded (16% of the cumulative total). Summer remains the peak season, accounting for 44% of total student week volume. 

Unsurprisingly, summer is also when the most seasonal multi-centres are operational. In Q3 2024, the 125 QUIC participants had a total of 233 teaching premises open, compared with 108 locations in Q4.

The 2024 quarterly results also reflected more traditional age segment distributions. In Q4, adults accounted for 95% of student weeks, while juniors made up just 5%. In contrast, junior student weeks were nearly equal to adult weeks in the summer months, reinforcing the trend that re-emerged in 2023.

Booking types also closely followed traditional patterns, with group bookings peaking (at 42%) in the summer and individual bookings dominating (90%) in Q4.

Greater volatility in the top markets

The top 10 markets represented between 66% and 72% of the total volume across all quarters of 2023 and 2024. However, one key difference is the significantly higher volatility than in the pre-pandemic period. The relative importance of the top-ranking markets changes more frequently from quarter to quarter.

This combination of factors indicates to BONARD that 2023 is the new benchmark for the UK ELT sector.

Q4 2024 at a glance

(n=123 members)

• 110.5k student weeks delivered: 95% adult and 5% junior
• 71% of all student weeks from top 10 markets
• Top 5 adult source markets: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, South Korea and Colombia
• Top 5 junior source markets: Italy, Germany, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and France
• 4% decrease in adult student weeks, and juniors were down 8% on Q4 2023
• Adults recovered 72% of their 2019 student week volume, and juniors 65%
• 90% individual bookings and 10% group - the same ratio as in Q4 2023
• 76% booked through agencies, 3% more than in Q4 2023
• Adult student weeks still missing from China, and the most significant decrease occurred in Switzerland

> Download the Q4 2024 executive summary

The executive summary includes the headline cumulative whole-year data from the 2024 QUIC cohort and the group's Q4 results.

The full data sets and detailed report are only available to QUIC participants.